EUR/USD Outlook for the week of Jan 3rd. to Jan 7th, 2011

EUR/USD closed at 1.3354 after a three days rally at year end.

Euro zone countries still facing challenges going to 2011 with sovereign debt crisis. Now, investors are waiting to see who is next to ask for bailout Portugal or Spain? Rating companies keep threatening for downgrades and they have some countries in watch list for next month. Things are not pretty for Euro going to 2011.

Let’s keep the fundamental problem on the side and let’s look at the technical side of Euro/USD for coming weeks.

From our technical analysis, we see the first resistance at 1.3428 which is Dec 3rd and Dec 13th high. If you look at the chart below, you will see that Euro/Usd fell from that level every time it touched. On Dec 31st, it went high to that level and then closed below it. Also, there is a near term resistance at 1.3467 which is 38.2% of fibo retracement from 1.4280 – 1.2970.

We will take a bullish position, if Euro/Usd close above 1.3467. Next resistance will be at 1.3621 which is 50.0% fibo.

On the lower side, we see the first support at around 1.3120.

BEST OF LUCK IN 2011!

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Next Week Currency Watch EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP closed at a very important level of .8502. Why it is important? Because that level acted as a resistance on July 19, 2010 and then it fell from that level to .8150 before it bounced back to .8900 in October 2010. This is also just above 20SMA and the mid point of Bollinger band. MACD showing oversold and there is a sign of reversal. Last but not least, .8502 is very close to 50% fibo retracement of .8538 which also can act as a short term resistance.


Our strategy: Take long if daily close at or above .8538. TP will be .8610 and SL below .8470

See our monthly performance: Peformance Calender 

Spain Hits Hard Times - WSJ

EUR/USD Outlook Remains Bearish , November 19, 2010

The latest slide has finally stopped after ending a sequence of consecutive daily lower highs, and it seems the market starts the process of correcting the latest major 1.4285-1.3445 move. While there is certainly room for additional upside movement from current levels (1.3715), our outlook remains bearish following the break below 1.3700 several days ago. The 38.2% fib retracement off of the latest move comes in by 1.3760, with the level also offering itself as the midpoint between the 10/20-Day SMAs.
STRATEGY: Sell is set at 1.3760 or 1.3780 for an Open Objective; STOP is set at 1.3850.


Performed by Gerardo Porras Palomino, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

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EUR/CAD Opportunity You Don't Want To Miss....

EUR/CAD bounced back from it's oversold position on Friday. It closed @ 1.3823. Weekly low was 1.3658.

CCI and Bollinger band both showing rebound from oversold position but still in negative position.

Euro was under much pressure last week on speculation that Ireland was on the verge of a EUR 80b bailout from EU and IMF. The rumors sent CDS on peripheral Eurozone countries to record high, as well as respective bond spread with benchmark German bund. Nevertheless, the rumor was denied by Irish finance ministry on Friday. Investors were also worried that Germany will push forward measures to have bond holders sharing the burden in future bailout of countries in fiscal problems. But investors were then calmed down by a joint statement by UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain that "any new (bailout) mechanism would only come into effect after mid-2013 with no impact whatsoever on the current arrangements".

If no new bad news comes out of Euro next week, we will expect Euro to rally against CAD. We will be looking for a long position on any pullback from this level.

We closed last week with +190 pips profit and our Managed account gained +4.3% for the month of October.

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EUR/USD Range Bound Possible

EUR/USD hovering near lower bollinger band and near it's short term support at 1.3730. CCI also showing oversold level. Maybe, it's time for a bounce.
Our daily bias remains neutral. We think EUR/USD might get stuck in a range bound between 1.3730 and 1.4250 in near term. See the chart below.
Break below 1.3730 will cause a major damage to it's recent upside move.

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USD/CAD Outlook For The Week Of Oct 18-22

Last week, USD/CAD touched the parity mark and then bounced back from there. At the beginning of last week, all commodity currencies moved higher against the US dollar as Oil and Gold hit high for the week. Gold touched all time high this month and seems like no stop near sight. Oil price fell on Friday and that brought Canadian Dollar back from parity.
Coming week is very important for USD/CAD as Canadian Rate decision on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT (9:00 AM NY Time).

The Bank of Canada expects the economic recovery in Canada to be more gradual than it had predicted in its July Monetary Policy Report although consumption and investment have evolved largely as anticipated. The previous inflation rate grew by 1.00% following 0.75% rise in July. September’s inflation rate is expected to remain 1.00%. A gradual increase is inflation rate will provide backing to the Canadian growing economy.

On technical level, USD/CAD closed doji on a weekly chart. In candlestick term, it's a sign of reversal. In our weekly, bolinger band chart, you can see USD/CAD just closed above the lower bolinger band. If the price can closes above 1.0180 on a daily chart then, USD/CAD can go as high as 1.0350 before the next resistance.
Good Luck Everyone On Your Trading Next Week.

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