Euro Outlook April 12-16

Euro rallied on late US session based on a rumor that the Greece would receive financial help from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund as soon as this weekend. Fitch Ratings downgraded the Greece two notches to the lowest investment-grade rating but that didn't stop Euro rally.


In technical view point, we see that euro closed on a very critical price point. If you look at the chart you can see that the Euro closed just little above 61.8% fibo retracement of 1.3484 which is March'08 low of 1.2662 and Nov'09 high of 1.5135. It also touched the top line of downward channel and 20 SMA.

Next week, Euro either will break above its current resistance or fall below it. If Euro stays above 1.35 then the next resistance will be at 1.38 levels. Which is a very strong resistance for Euro at this point. Euro couldn’t break that level since February after multiple try. On the other hand 1.3250 is also a strong support for Euro. It dropped to that level and quickly bounced back few times last month.

Until the Greek issue is solved Euro might move sideways between 1.3250 and 1.38 in coming weeks.

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