Wednesday, March 24, 2010

GBP/USD MAR 25TH OUTLOOK

Greek crisis along with Portugal's rating downgraded by Fitch fueled the sell off yesterday.
European leaders are meeting for a two-day summit in Brussels tomorrow driven by disputes over whether and when to rescue Greece from financial collapse. Euro sinks it’s lowest against the dollar in 10 months. GBP came closer to March low and below it's 61.8% fibo at 1.4950.
Market bias negative for all currencies against dollar could continue tomorrow but there could also be a short term bounce from oversold position.
We think GBP/USD might get some push towards 61.8% fibo level at 1.4947. That also could be a resistance. If it can pass through that level then we think it will hit the next resistance at 1.5039 which was yesterday’s high.
Downside risk will be limited at 1.4781 March low short term.

Friday, March 19, 2010

Eur/Usd Outlook Mar 22-26

Eur/Usd continued moving within it's range between 1.3400 and 1.3800 since February. On Mar 17th it failed to break above 1.3800 and fell harder the next day.
Eur/Usd is the most bearish currency pair of all. Economic news out of Europe are not strong enough to move this currency higher or break above it's current range. Greek debt crisis is also hurting euro.

We will see how it unfold next week. We did few good trades shorting Euro from it's high. We are bearish on Euro but will be careful as it is coming closer to it's support at 1.34 and also near it's 61.8% fibo support area at 1.3484.

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