Sunday, January 9, 2011

U.S. Dollar Index - Outlook For Jan 10 - Jan 14

U.S. Dollar Index closed at 81.13 on Friday. This is just shy off Nov 30th high of 81.44. Last time U.S. Dollar Index fell from that level to as low as 79 on Dec 3rd, 2010.

Technically, it's a short term resistance.

Next week will be very interesting to see if it can break above that level. If it does then we expect U.S. dollar index to go as high as 83.55 which is August 24th high and can act as a very strong resistance.
RSI is not at overbought level. So, there are possibility to move further up in coming week.

Last week, we got mixed economic data came out of U.S. Next week, we will be watching mainly Fed's Beige Book Economic release which is due on Jan 12th and also U.S. retail sales. These two report will give pretty good idea of current U.S. economic outlook and will move dollar accordingly.

See the USD Index chart below.

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Sunday, January 2, 2011

EUR/USD Outlook for the week of Jan 3rd. to Jan 7th, 2011

EUR/USD closed at 1.3354 after a three days rally at year end.

Euro zone countries still facing challenges going to 2011 with sovereign debt crisis. Now, investors are waiting to see who is next to ask for bailout Portugal or Spain? Rating companies keep threatening for downgrades and they have some countries in watch list for next month. Things are not pretty for Euro going to 2011.

Let’s keep the fundamental problem on the side and let’s look at the technical side of Euro/USD for coming weeks.

From our technical analysis, we see the first resistance at 1.3428 which is Dec 3rd and Dec 13th high. If you look at the chart below, you will see that Euro/Usd fell from that level every time it touched. On Dec 31st, it went high to that level and then closed below it. Also, there is a near term resistance at 1.3467 which is 38.2% of fibo retracement from 1.4280 – 1.2970.

We will take a bullish position, if Euro/Usd close above 1.3467. Next resistance will be at 1.3621 which is 50.0% fibo.

On the lower side, we see the first support at around 1.3120.

BEST OF LUCK IN 2011!

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