Thursday, April 22, 2010

EURUSD touched a very critical level

EURUSD touched 1.3340 level which is also a support for previous downward line. Break below can fall further to 1.3269 which was a strong support since March.
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Sunday, April 11, 2010

Trader Mindset Video by Larry Levin

Trader Mindset CD Video from Chelsey Krull on Vimeo.

Euro Outlook April 12-16

Euro rallied on late US session based on a rumor that the Greece would receive financial help from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund as soon as this weekend. Fitch Ratings downgraded the Greece two notches to the lowest investment-grade rating but that didn't stop Euro rally.


In technical view point, we see that euro closed on a very critical price point. If you look at the chart you can see that the Euro closed just little above 61.8% fibo retracement of 1.3484 which is March'08 low of 1.2662 and Nov'09 high of 1.5135. It also touched the top line of downward channel and 20 SMA.

Next week, Euro either will break above its current resistance or fall below it. If Euro stays above 1.35 then the next resistance will be at 1.38 levels. Which is a very strong resistance for Euro at this point. Euro couldn’t break that level since February after multiple try. On the other hand 1.3250 is also a strong support for Euro. It dropped to that level and quickly bounced back few times last month.

Until the Greek issue is solved Euro might move sideways between 1.3250 and 1.38 in coming weeks.

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Saturday, April 3, 2010

Eur/Usd Outlook April 2-9

The manufacturing PMIs showed strong gains in March, with global index rising 1.3 pts to 56.7. The March reading delivered a new high for the expansion and is just a point below the series high dating back to 1998. The output and orders components of the global PMI rose to near 59, consistent with robust growth in global factory production in the near-term of at least 7% annualized.

U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in March, the largest gain since 2007. But nearly one-third came from temporary hiring for the Census. The unemployment rate was steady at 9.7%. US is in a slow recovery mood. Dollar gaining momentum.

EUR/USD in a downward channel since december. If you look at the daily chart you can see that EUR/USD hit resistance near 1.36 and then fell. We think at this point 1.36 is a strong resistance for Euro. If it break that then it can go up 1.38 March 17th. high. As per daily chart, the next support can be at 1.3250.
Looking at next week calender, all European banks are closed on Monday and there are no ecomomic news due for Euro. Only important news for Euro will be Germany factory orders. Which is due on Wednesday.
Overall, Euro still holding bearish sentiment going to next week.
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