Sunday, January 2, 2011

EUR/USD Outlook for the week of Jan 3rd. to Jan 7th, 2011

EUR/USD closed at 1.3354 after a three days rally at year end.

Euro zone countries still facing challenges going to 2011 with sovereign debt crisis. Now, investors are waiting to see who is next to ask for bailout Portugal or Spain? Rating companies keep threatening for downgrades and they have some countries in watch list for next month. Things are not pretty for Euro going to 2011.

Let’s keep the fundamental problem on the side and let’s look at the technical side of Euro/USD for coming weeks.

From our technical analysis, we see the first resistance at 1.3428 which is Dec 3rd and Dec 13th high. If you look at the chart below, you will see that Euro/Usd fell from that level every time it touched. On Dec 31st, it went high to that level and then closed below it. Also, there is a near term resistance at 1.3467 which is 38.2% of fibo retracement from 1.4280 – 1.2970.

We will take a bullish position, if Euro/Usd close above 1.3467. Next resistance will be at 1.3621 which is 50.0% fibo.

On the lower side, we see the first support at around 1.3120.

BEST OF LUCK IN 2011!

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